CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE PROFITABILITY OF PRODUCTION AND SALE OF CEREAL CROPS IN UKRAINE
cris.lastimport.scopus | 2024-09-19T01:30:24Z | |
dc.abstract.en | The grain industry occupies a leading position in the domestic agricultural market, and today, under the conditions of the 2022 war, the effective functioning of the grain market is extremely important to solve the problem of ensuring food and national security not only in Ukraine, but also in many other countries of the world. The purpose of the research is to conduct a correlation-regression analysis of the profitability of grain production in Ukraine, to single out the main influencing factors, to build a linear regression model based on the factors identified. Previous studies devoted to this topic (conducted by scientists from Ukraine, Great Britain, Egypt, Bangladesh, Iran, Niger, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and China) cover a wide range of factors influencing the profitability of grain production. However, the authors assume that to the greatest extent the studied indicator is influenced by precisely those factors that come from the essence of the definition of the profitability indicator. In order to test this hypothesis, the method of correlation-regression analysis was used, which allowed to identify factors that significantly impact the profitability of grain production in Ukraine. Model building and calculation of the regression coefficients were conducted using the software package STATISTICA. It was found that the most significant variables are yield, sales prices, costs of production and sales, on the basis of which a linear regression model was built, that reflects the dependence of the profitability of grain production in Ukraine on the above-mentioned indicators ( ). With an increase in yield per unit, profitability increases by 1.27 units. With an increase in the selling price per unit, the profitability increases by 0.0242. If the cost per unit of production increases, then the profitability of cereals will decrease by 0.0007. The distribution of the residuals of the model obtained by the authors is close to the normal distribution, and the histogram of the distribution of residuals is close to the graph of the normal distribution, therefore, we can conclude that this model is adequate. Based on the analysis of the distribution of residues, the model can be considered satisfactory. The analysis revealed a negative scale effect in the grain industry, which can be avoided if agricultural land is used effectively. The cancellation of the moratorium on the sale of land opens the way for the transfer of land to more efficient users, which will have a positive effect on the profitability of production | |
dc.abstract.language | uk | |
dc.abstract.other | Зернова галузь займає лідируючі позиції серед вітчизняного аграрного ринку і сьогодні за умов війни 2022 р. вкрай важливим є ефективне функціонування ринку зернових культур задля вирішення проблеми забезпечення продовольчої та національної безпеки не лише України, але й багатьох інших країн світу. Мета наукового дослідження – провести кореляційно-регресій ний аналіз рентабельності зерновиробництва в Україні, виокремити основні фактори впливу, на основі яких побудувати модель лінійної регресії. Попередні дослідження, присвячені даній тематиці (вчені з України, Великої Британії, Єгипту, Бангладеш, Ірану, Нігеру, Нігерії, Зімбаб ве, Китаю), охоплюють широкий спектр факторів впливу на рентабельність зерновиробництва. Проте автори припускають, що найбільшою мірою на досліджуваний показник впливають саме ті фактори, які виходять із сутності визначення показника рентабельності. З метою перевір ки даної гіпотези застосовано метод кореляційно регресійного аналізу, при проведені якого було виявлено чинники, що здійснюють найсуттєвіший вплив на рентабельність зерновироб ництва в Україні. Виявлено, що найбільш значущими змінними є урожайність, ціна реалізації та витрати на виробництво і збут, на основі чого побудовано модель лінійної регресії, яка ві дображає залежність рентабельності зерновиробництва в Україні від вищезгаданих показників ( ). Спираючись на аналіз розподілу залишків, модель можна вважати задовільною. У ході аналізу виявлено негативний ефект масштабу в зерновій галузі, якого можна уникнути за умови ефективного використання сільськогосподарських угідь. Скасування мораторію на продаж землі відкриває шляхи до переходу землі більш ефективним користувачам, що позитивно позначиться на рентабельності виробництва. | |
dc.affiliation | Administracji i Nauk Społecznych | |
dc.contributor.author | Viktor Koziuk | |
dc.contributor.author | Anastasiia Lipetska | |
dc.contributor.author | Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi | |
dc.contributor.author | Oksana Shymanska | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-04-11T06:32:49Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-04-11T06:32:49Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
dc.description.abstract | <jats:p>The grain industry occupies a leading position in the domestic agricultural market, and today, under the conditions of the 2022 war, the effective functioning of the grain market is extremely important to solve the problem of ensuring food and national security not only in Ukraine, but also in many other countries of the world. The purpose of the research is to conduct a correlation-regression analysis of the profitability of grain production in Ukraine, to single out the main influencing factors, to build a linear regression model based on the factors identified. Previous studies devoted to this topic (conducted by scientists from Ukraine, Great Britain, Egypt, Bangladesh, Iran, Niger, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and China) cover a wide range of factors influencing the profitability of grain production. However, the authors assume that to the greatest extent the studied indicator is influenced by precisely those factors that come from the essence of the definition of the profitability indicator. In order to test this hypothesis, the method of correlation-regression analysis was used, which allowed to identify factors that significantly impact the profitability of grain production in Ukraine. Model building and calculation of the regression coefficients were conducted using the software package STATISTICA. It was found that the most significant variables are yield, sales prices, costs of production and sales, on the basis of which a linear regression model was built, that reflects the dependence of the profitability of grain production in Ukraine on the above-mentioned indicators ( ). With an increase in yield per unit, profitability increases by 1.27 units. With an increase in the selling price per unit, the profitability increases by 0.0242. If the cost per unit of production increases, then the profitability of cereals will decrease by 0.0007. The distribution of the residuals of the model obtained by the authors is close to the normal distribution, and the histogram of the distribution of residuals is close to the graph of the normal distribution, therefore, we can conclude that this model is adequate. Based on the analysis of the distribution of residues, the model can be considered satisfactory. The analysis revealed a negative scale effect in the grain industry, which can be avoided if agricultural land is used effectively. The cancellation of the moratorium on the sale of land opens the way for the transfer of land to more efficient users, which will have a positive effect on the profitability of production.</jats:p> | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.32342/2074-5354-2023-1-58-3 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2074-5354 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2522-9745 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repo.akademiawsei.eu/handle/item/174 | |
dc.language | uk | |
dc.pbn.affiliation | economics and finance | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Academic Review | |
dc.rights | CC-BY | |
dc.subject.en | profitability | |
dc.subject.en | agro-industrial complex | |
dc.subject.en | grain industry | |
dc.subject.en | correlation-regression analysis | |
dc.subject.language | uk | |
dc.subject.other | рентабельність | |
dc.subject.other | АПК | |
dc.subject.other | зернова галузь | |
dc.subject.other | кореляційно-регресійний аналіз | |
dc.title | CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE PROFITABILITY OF PRODUCTION AND SALE OF CEREAL CROPS IN UKRAINE | |
dc.type | ReviewArticle | |
dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
oaire.citation.issue | 58 | |
oaire.citation.volume | 1 |
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