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Identification of the Demand Curve and Forecasts in Subsequent Periods Using the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm

cris.lastimport.scopus2024-09-20T01:31:20Z
dc.abstract.enPurpose: The main purpose of the article is to identify the demand curve and to forecast demand in subsequent periods using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm belonging to the Markov Chain Monte Carlo was used to identify the demand curve and to forecast the demand in subsequent periods. This method consists in generating (drawing) a sample in accordance with the modified distribution and the possibility of rejecting a new sample in case of insufficient improvement of the quality index. Findings: The results of the conducted research indicate that the presented solution of generating a sample in accordance with the modified distribution and the possibility of rejecting a new sample in the event of insufficient improvement of the quality index is effective in identifying and forecasting the demand. Practical Implications: The algorithm presented in the article can be used to forecast stays taking into account the product life curve. Originality/Value: A novelty is the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to identify the demand curve and the forecast of demand in subsequent periods to determine the strategy of long-term products by analyzing the sales volume of the product.
dc.affiliationTransportu i Informatyki
dc.contributor.authorLukasz Golabek
dc.contributor.authorKonrad Gauda
dc.contributor.authorKrzysztof Zuk
dc.contributor.authorEdward Kozlowski
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-01T06:49:51Z
dc.date.available2024-07-01T06:49:51Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.doi10.35808/ersj/2282
dc.identifier.issn1108-2976
dc.identifier.urihttps://repo.akademiawsei.eu/handle/item/347
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationinformation and communication technology
dc.relation.ispartofEUROPEAN RESEARCH STUDIES JOURNAL
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC-SA
dc.subject.enMachine learning
dc.subject.enMarkov Chain Monte Carlo
dc.subject.enMetropolis-Hastings algorithm
dc.subject.enforecasting
dc.titleIdentification of the Demand Curve and Forecasts in Subsequent Periods Using the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm
dc.typeReviewArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issueSpecial Issue 2
oaire.citation.volumeXXIV